What is the formula for finding a profitable starting pitcher? It’s a complicated formula, and the stats that you might associate with a profitable pitcher don’t always apply.
Win/loss record isn’t everything. Clayton Kershaw is more profitable this year with a 6-4 record than Carlos Carrasco, who is 18-6. ERA isn’t a determining factor, as Zack Greinke comes in #9 on our list, right ahead of Madison Bumgarner and his 1.73 ERA.
Team start record isn’t even an accurate indicator, as Adam Morgan’s 7-6 TSR is not nearly as good as Gerrit Cole’s 19-9 TSR, yet Morgan is two spots above Cole on our list.
The most influential part of a profitable pitcher is the MLB Betting Line. Finding pitchers who win while being listed as the underdog or small favorites is the key. Of course, winning at a high rate trumps all.
Once again it is time for the MLB Trade Deadline and every fan, sports handicapper and sportsbook is eagerly waiting to see who will go where. According to several sportsbook price per head reviews, several sportsbooks have even started to make odds on players being traded.
Just to give you a preview of what is to come we have come up with a list of the top 5 MLB Players that will most likely be traded to another team.
Ozuna is a 26 year old left fields player for the Miami Marlins who is available for trade. Just like a baseball card, he could fetch Miami some good talent if a trae goes in affect. According to his contract, Miami has control of Ozuna until the end of the 2019 season and is currently at an OPS+ of 154.
This past Saturday, the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to an extension with first baseman Justin Smoak for a two year contract for a cool $8.5 million that will cover the 2017 and 2018 baseball season.
Smoke has been playing in Major League Baseball for seven seasons and is currently making $3.9 million this year. In addition, this year he is eligible to become a free agent and chose an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.
His extension with Toronto will pay him $4,125,000 each season (2017 and 2018) and Toronto also has a $6 million option for 2019 with a $250,000 buyout. If Smokes can deliver, his option price will go up to $7 million if he can get 950 plate appearances for the 2017 and 2018 seasons combined.
With Kansas City beating Toronto 4-3 in Game Six the Royals reached the World Series for the second year in a row. They came up one win short last year of hoisting the trophy, falling to the San Francisco Giants in seven games.
The online sportsbooks view this series as a virtual coin flip, having the Mets as a small -125 favorite to win the World Series despite Kansas City having home field advantage. Remember, in the World Series the format for home field advantage has KC at home for Games 1, 2, 6, and 7.
Game One’s pitching matchup sees New York sending Matt Harvey to the hill against the Royals Edinson Volquez. Harvey has done a great job at home this season going 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 appearances (13-6 team start record), including two wins in two starts against the Dodgers and Cubs this postseason.
The National League has already locked up all five teams for the postseason. The Mets and Dodgers have wrapped up their divisions, while St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Chicago have already punched their playoff tickets.
While the Cardinals have not yet clinched the NL Central and overall home field advantage through the NL Playoffs, they are up four games on Pittsburgh with just five games to play, so that is merely a formality at this point.
In the American League, Toronto and Kansas City have locked up their playoff appearances, but there is still much to be decided in terms of the AL West winner and the two Wild Card spots.
Kansas City’s “never-give-up” attitude was on full display in the World Series, capped with a two-run tying ninth inning in the deciding Game Five in New York and a five-run 12th inning to secure their first World Series Championship in 30 years.
And if winning the World Series wasn’t good enough, Royals backers did especially well as KC was listed as the underdog in each of their last three wins – including a big +140 payout in Game Five. Backing the Royals in all five games would have returned a net profit of +3.7 units – winning three times at a +140, +120, and +110 underdog, then again as a small favorite and having their lone defeat in the underdog role.
While the Dodgers and Blue Jays entered the postseason with what was thought to be the best starting rotations, neither of those teams reached the World Series. Los Angeles has since parted ways with manager Don Mattingly who has since been hired by Miami.